The window of opportunity for China's industrial e

2022-08-01
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China's industrial economic structure adjustment opportunity window is coming

China's industrial economic structure adjustment opportunity window is coming

China Construction Machinery Information

Guide: in the long run, due to the fundamental change in the factor structure, the potential industrial growth rate will go down step by step. The steady decline of China's industrial growth rate in the coming period of time not only provides a buffer space for us to ensure employment and the stable development of enterprises, but also precisely uses the forced mechanism to promote China's industry

in the long run, due to the fundamental change of factor structure, the potential industrial growth rate will gradually decline. The steady decline of China's industrial growth rate in the coming period of time not only provides a buffer space for us to ensure employment and the stable development of enterprises, but also a window of opportunity to actively adjust the industrial structure, promote the improvement of quality and efficiency, and accelerate the reform of system and mechanism by using the pressure of China's industrialization as the driving force

industrial growth faces potential risks

from the perspective of industrial growth in the future, it may face the following potential risks

first, the potential growth rate of the industrial economy has shifted to the medium speed stage. Over the past decade, China's industrial growth has remained high. During the "Eleventh Five Year Plan" period, the average annual growth of industrial added value reached 11.7%. The long-term high-speed growth of industry has brought about rapid economic development, but at the same time, it has also caused the lack of motivation for enterprises to adjust and transform

the potential growth rate of China's industry is analyzed according to the production function model. If we can't make a big breakthrough in technological progress and resource allocation system reform, it is estimated that the potential growth rate of industry will be in the growth range of 7%-8% from 2012 to 2015, and will further drop to the growth range of 6%-7% from 2016 to 2020

dialectically, the steady decline of China's industrial growth rate in the coming period of time not only provides a buffer space for us to ensure the stable development of employment and enterprises, but also precisely a window of opportunity to actively adjust the industrial structure, promote the improvement of quality and efficiency, and accelerate the reform of system and mechanism by using the pressure of China's industrialization as the driving force. The high-speed growth of China's industry can no longer be maintained by the high input of capital and labor. Industrial growth must shift from relying on factor input to relying on technological progress and improving total factor productivity

secondly, it is still difficult for macro indicators to stabilize slowly and micro subjects. Although a number of leading indicators reflecting the future trend, such as heavy industrial production, power generation, planned total investment in new projects, have rebounded, and the pattern of stabilization and recovery of industrial economic growth has been further clarified, from the perspective of the micro environment, the production and sales rate of enterprises has declined, and the inventory of finished products has not significantly improved, The situation of increasing income without increasing profit (b) the layer spacing of go and go-pda with different water content (c) the scanning electron microscope images of go and go-pda papers have not been significantly improved, and the downward pressure on the industrial economy is still large. The debt of enterprises in some industries has increased, the capital chain has tightened, the operational risk has increased, and the non-performing rate and overdue rate of loans have both increased. Credit risk began to spread from ship, steel and other difficult industries to chemical building materials, non-ferrous metals, photovoltaic, wind power, construction machinery and other industries, and showed a momentum of accelerated diffusion

in the environment of rising raw material costs, rising labor costs and the trend of RMB appreciation that is difficult to reverse, the "speed benefit" profit model of China's large and medium-sized industrial enterprises will still face a severe test in 2013. At the same time, the current contraction of small and medium-sized enterprises has become a short board for economic stabilization and recovery. Although the state has issued a number of measures to support small and medium-sized enterprises, which can alleviate the pressure on the survival and development of small and medium-sized enterprises to a certain extent, on the whole, the difficult situation of small and medium-sized industrial enterprises in China will continue to exist for a period of time. Therefore, measures must be taken to solve the deviation between the slow stabilization of macro indicators and the still difficult micro subjects, so as to prevent industrial enterprises from falling into the dilemma of non-profit growth

third, the growth rate of industrial exports declined and the competitiveness of industrial exports declined. The prospects for global economic growth are full of uncertainty. The "focal point" of the European debt crisis has not been resolved, the "fiscal cliff" crisis in the United States may break out, and the export growth to developed economies such as Europe, the United States and Japan will remain low and slow. At the same time, due to the rapid rise of China's factor costs, the export price advantage of "made in China" has been weakened, and the competitiveness of China's industrial exports has shown a downward trend. Relevant statistics show that the share of China's labor-intensive products in the international market has continued to decline slightly. In the past two years, China's export trade volume to the EU has declined, not only because of the decline in EU demand, but also because of the relative decline in the competitiveness of China's export products. Therefore, the decline in the competitiveness of export products deserves more attention and vigilance than the decline in the growth rate of industrial exports

fourth, the problems of declining investment efficiency and overcapacity have become increasingly prominent. Overcapacity will still be the main contradiction faced by China's industrial economy in the future. The thermal deformation temperature is>280 ℃. According to IMF estimates, nearly 28% of China's manufacturing capacity is idle on average, and 35.5% of manufacturing enterprises have a capacity utilization rate of 75% or less. It can be predicted that in the next few years, China's real economy is likely to experience a difficult process of de capacity. As the profitability of industrial enterprises continues to decline and the debt ratio continues to rise, the accumulated debt risk of high debt and high investment of some large enterprises in the heavy chemical industry can not be ignored, and they are likely to fall into a balance sheet crisis, which will affect the stability of industrial economic growth

the deep-seated contradiction reflected by the overcapacity problem is actually a problem that the investment efficiency is declining while China's economy is growing rapidly. From the effect coefficient of industrial fixed assets investment, the incremental capital output ratio (ICOR) has decreased from times in 1997 to times in 2010 and 2011. In 2011, for every 100million yuan of industrial fixed asset investment in China, the industrial added value increased by only 21.6 billion yuan. Therefore, at present, China's industrial development should attach great importance to investment quality and efficiency, and pursue higher investment efficiency on the basis of maintaining a reasonable investment growth rate

expanding domestic demand

promoting industrial transformation and upgrading

the report of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed that the GDP and per capita income of urban and rural residents should be doubled by 2020 compared with 2010. It is estimated that this goal can be achieved as long as the average annual growth rate of GDP remains at 7.2% in the future. Therefore, the introduction of this goal shows that the focus of China's economic development in the future will pay more attention to quality and efficiency

in view of the current situation and problems in the industrial and economic operation, and in the face of many adverse factors, such as the slowdown in the growth of factor input, the tightening of resource and environment constraints, the continuous rise in factor costs, and the decline in the profitability of industrial enterprises, next year's industrial development can follow the idea of "steady growth with support, mode transformation with motivation, structural adjustment with progress, integration promotion with means, and risk control with preparation", Efforts will be made to promote industrial restructuring and industrial transformation and upgrading

first, promote and implement the strategy of doubling national income and strive to expand domestic demand. We will adhere to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, continue to place steady growth in a more important position, and earnestly implement the policies and measures that have been introduced. We will promote the strategy of doubling national income, straighten out the relationship between income distribution, increase the proportion of labor remuneration in the primary distribution, and keep residents' income and GDP growth in step. We will strive to expand domestic demand, especially consumer demand, optimize the policy of using subsidies to drive consumption in the domestic market, actively guide the upgrading of residents' consumption structure, and accelerate the formation of a pattern in which domestic demand plays a leading role in driving economic growth

second, deepen the application of technology products and enhance the international competitiveness of emerging industries. We will continue to do a good job in industrial restructuring and promote economic transformation and upgrading. We will increase investment in technological transformation, continue to strictly control the expansion of industries with "two high" and overcapacity, use the forced mechanism to accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity, continue to support large backbone enterprises in cross regional and cross ownership mergers and acquisitions, and improve industrial concentration and competitiveness. Accelerate the guidance, support and management of the development of strategic emerging industries, promote the technology research and development and terminal application of new generation information technology, new energy, new materials and other emerging industries, and enhance the international competitiveness of strategic emerging industries

third, provide operation, protection, training and other services for the country where the project is located, formulate and promote a new round of technological innovation strategy, and promote the deep integration of industrialization and industrialization. In order to actively meet the opportunities and challenges of a new round of technological innovation and industrial revolution, and to prevent the continuous decline of China's industrial international competitiveness, we should speed up the formulation and promotion of a new round of technological innovation strategy. Accelerate the construction of information society infrastructure represented by the new generation of information network, which should timely clear the debris left in the jaws, accelerate the "broadband China" plan, accelerate the application of information technology in the whole product chain of enterprises, and promote the highly integrated development of information technology and industrial technology; Accelerate the development and industrialization of applied electronic products, enhance the core competitiveness of enterprises, and promote the rationalization of industrial structure

fourth, effectively improve investment efficiency and enhance the profitability of industrial enterprises. Adhere to the combination of stabilizing growth, adjusting structure and ensuring efficiency, implement a series of policies and measures of the central government to expand domestic demand and promote economic growth, create a good development environment for the development of enterprises, and lay a more solid foundation for sustainable and healthy economic development. We will further break down industrial barriers and monopolies and create a fair and competitive business environment more conducive to the healthy growth of enterprises. We will support the development of small and micro enterprises, increase structural tax reductions, focus on the pilot project of replacing business tax with value-added tax, implement a series of policy measures to reduce the tax burden on small and micro enterprises, and improve the policy support system and public service system. We will improve the industrial investment management system, effectively improve the efficiency of industrial investment, enhance the profitability of industrial enterprises, and strive to adjust China's industrial development to the track of quality and efficiency

fifth, prevent and control the financial risks of industrial enterprises, and do a good job in early warning and risk control. While the global economy is still under the deep impact of the world financial crisis and the world economy is still facing downside risks, it is necessary to be highly vigilant against the operational risks faced by industrial enterprises under the dual meeting environment of shrinking external demand and shrinking domestic demand. Effectively strengthen and improve enterprise management, and seek new market demand and profit space for industrial enterprises. Strengthen the credit construction of modern commercial system through multiple approaches, focus on promoting the construction of enterprise risk prevention system, attach great importance to the potential financial risks and liquidity risks of industrial enterprises, and do a good job in management and control, so as to improve the overall quality and competitiveness of industrial enterprises

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